Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasted to Be Above Normal for 2024

This year’s forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.

There is an 85% chance that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which is from June 1 to November 30, will be above normal. NOAA is forecasting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of the named storms, eight to 13 are predicted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Four to seven of those are expected to be major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook, according to NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.

The predicted above-normal activity is due to several factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. Additionally, NOAA cites human-caused climate change as another contributing factor to the damages caused by storms. According to NOAA, “climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.”

2024 Atlantic Storm and Hurricane Names

The names of this year’s Atlantic storms will be:

  • Alberto
  • Beryl
  • Chris
  • Debby
  • Ernesto
  • Francine
  • Gordon
  • Helene
  • Isaac
  • Joyce
  • Kirk
  • Leslie
  • Milton
  • Nadine
  • Oscar
  • Patty
  • Rafael
  • Sara
  • Tony
  • Valeria
  • William

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks in a press release. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

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About the Author

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Robin has been covering the security and campus law enforcement industries since 1998 and is a specialist in school, university and hospital security, public safety and emergency management, as well as emerging technologies and systems integration. She joined CS in 2005 and has authored award-winning editorial on campus law enforcement and security funding, officer recruitment and retention, access control, IP video, network integration, event management, crime trends, the Clery Act, Title IX compliance, sexual assault, dating abuse, emergency communications, incident management software and more. Robin has been featured on national and local media outlets and was formerly associate editor for the trade publication Security Sales & Integration. She obtained her undergraduate degree in history from California State University, Long Beach.

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